Alabama Redistricting Fact Sheet

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報告警告:人口普查可能漏計最年幼的孩童

洛杉磯加大研究員暨美國人口普查局顧問王保羅(Paul Ong,音譯)表示,2020年人口普查已進入第二個月,有望成為「史上最不完整的人口普查之一」。 與過去的數據收集情況一樣,貧困或不諳英語的五歲以下幼童、少數族裔和移民家庭,是人口普查中最容易被漏計的人口,這項事實將影響政府未來十年資金分配的優先順序。 王保羅表示,過去一個月,全美家庭的人口普查參與率落後2010年至少11%(https://tinyurl.com/UCLACensusStudy)。2010年人口普查被視為是到目前為止最準確的一次普查,參與率為74%,但仍有約200萬人未被計算在內,絕大部分都是五歲以下的幼童。 參與人口普查有利於個人及其社區。一般而言,任何年齡層的個人只要參與人口普查,都可以為社區爭取到數千元的政府資金,這些資金將作為資助數百項社會服務計劃之用,包括許多針對兒童的福利計劃,如教育、營養、住房和其他。2010年被漏計的兒童,過去十年來都被排除在資金決定範圍之外。 華府人口研究局(Population Research Bureau,簡稱PRB)估計,美國現在年齡在5歲以下的幼童約有1650萬人,當中25%的幼童,約406萬5000人,他們的家庭住在不參與人口普查「非常高風險」的地區,另外929萬名幼童被漏計的風險「十分高」。 截至5月初,那些非常高風險地區住家的人口普查參與率為48.6%,全美平均參與率則是54.6%。參與人口普查的基本單位是住家,而非個人。 被視為有非常高漏計風險的幼童多生活在貧困中,與他們同住的18歲到34歲的成年人的教育程度都不高,當家的不是單親媽媽,就是這些幼童的祖父母,他們的英語能力十分有限,大部分都是移民家庭,或是租住他人房屋的家庭。 PRB研究發現(https://tinyurl.com/PRBstudy),不同族裔有不同的狀況。以非裔為例,其48%五歲以下幼童被認為有非常高漏計風險,西裔為38%,印裔、阿拉斯加原住民、夏威夷原住民和其他太平洋島民為31%,亞裔為28%,認為自己擁有兩種或兩種以上族裔血統的族群為22%,非西語裔白人只有9%。 PRB這項研究同時提供了一些新工具,可用來確認這些可能被漏計的兒童住在何處,以確保他們能被包括在人口普查中。 研究人員發現,在美國3000多個縣當中,有689個縣是2010年93%被漏計兒童的居住地。研究特別標出這些分佈在美國多個主要都會區的人口普查區,每個人口普查區的人口通常是4000人,用以顯示這些就是幼童最容易被忽略漏計的地區。 邁阿密戴德縣(Miami-Dade County)84%五歲以下幼童屬於這個類別,費城為64%,紐約市為57%,華盛頓特區為53%,德州休士頓哈利斯縣(Harris County)和伊利諾州芝加哥庫克縣(Cook County)均為40%,密西根州韋恩縣(Wayne County)為39%。 PBR這項研究可以連結到紐約市立大學(City University...

2020 Census figures show that Alabama’s population has grown by 6.3% since 2010, to 5,024,279. That change is not enough to gain or cost Alabama a seat in Congress, where the state’s contingent will remain at seven.

Those seven seats in the House of Representatives, along with that of incumbent Republicans Senator Richard Shelby and Governor Kay Ivey, are all on the ballot in 2022. 

Since the 2011 redistricting, Alabama’s seven congressional districts each represent almost 700,000 people. With its 6.3% growth documented in the new 2020 Census data, those districts now will be redrawn to each include 717,750 people.

Similarly, new boundaries will have to be drawn to evenly divide the population into 35 state senate districts (currently 136,564 people each), 105 state assembly districts (45,521 each), and so on down the line to locally elected offices such as school boards.

Although, as was the case across much of the U.S., most of the population growth of the past 10 years in Alabama has been among people of color, Alabama remains very much a white-majority state, at 69.1%. African Americans constitute the largest minority group, at 26.8%, Hispanics are at 4.6%, Asians at 1.5% and Indians at .7%.

But among the new Alabamians are 43,722 African Americans, 78,445 Hispanics, 22,981 Asians, and 5,407 people who self-identified as American Indian/Native Alaskan. The white population, however, is down by 33,051.

Alabama is one of 23 states in the U.S. where the Republican Party controls a “trifecta” of both houses of the state legislature and the governor’s office. 

The legislature controls the redistricting process. Its Permanent Committee on Reapportionment – comprising six Democrats and 15 Republicans — is holding a series of hearings across the state between Sept. 1 and 15, sometimes five per day, as it prepares to redraw the political districts. Gov. Ivey has veto power over the maps it produces.

The GOP majority in the state Senate and Assembly has been growing in each election since 2006. The Senate flipped from a 23-12 Democratic majority to GOP majorities of 22-12 in 2010, 26-8 in 2014, and 27-8 in 2018. There are currently two vacant seats.

Over that same time period, the state Assembly went from being Democrat-led, 62-43 in 2006, to GOP majorities of 66-39 in 2010, 72-33 in 2014 and 77-28 in 2018. 

Currently, the Assembly has 18 women among its 105 members; the Senate includes five women among its 35 members. 

New political districts drawn in the 1980s were found to be in violation of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, but in 2013, the Supreme Court’s controversial, 5-4 decision in Shelby County v Holder vacated the VRA’s “preclearance” requirement that states with historically discriminatory voting policies must get Justice Department approval before enacting any changes to their election rules.

At the time, plaintiff Shelby County, in central Alabama, had seen more than 200 proposed voting rules changes disallowed.

Throughout U.S. history, politicians have corrupted the redistricting process by pushing through “gerrymandering” schemes — named for the redistricting engineered by a Massachusetts politician of more than 200 years ago, Elbridge Gerry, and the political districts he devised, deemed salamander-shaped.

Gerrymandering has allowed politicians in power to choose their voters, rather than the other way around, by either dividing communities between multiple districts to the extent that the other voters in each district outnumber the targeted community — a process known as “cracking” — or by “packing” that community.

In “packing” scenarios, voters thought to be a bloc are lumped together so that, although they might overwhelmingly win that particular district election, their representatives will be outnumbered and thus rendered powerless by colleagues representing other districts whose boundaries were drawn to exclude that bloc’s dissident voices.

Take, for example, Alabama’s 7th Congressional District, the only one in the state represented by a Democrat, Terri Sewell, first elected in 2010. It spans the state’s so-called “black belt” and includes sections of Montgomery, Birmingham and Tuscaloosa.

The 7th district overwhelmingly votes Democrat – by more than 70% in the past three presidential elections.

The district is so “packed” that Sewell won with more than 70% support in 2010, beat GOP candidate Don Chamberlain again in 2012, then ran unopposed in 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020.

But Sewell is the only Democrat Alabama has sent to Congress in the past decade, one of the first women and the very first Black woman to represent Alabama in Congress.

Of Tuscaloosa County’s 54 voting precincts, 16 voted majority Democratic in 2018. Of those, 15 were entirely in the 7th district, and the 16th was partially so. 

Sewell got 185,010 votes, 27,540 from Tuscaloosa County. In neighboring District 4, the losing candidate, Lee Auman, got 5,456 votes from the county – albeit in a district deemed the most GOP-leaning in the entire country. 

Nonetheless, according to the League of Women Voters, 43% of Alabama voters supported a Democrat running for one of those seven Congressional seats in 2018: 

“In 2018, 43% (about 3 in 7) of Alabamians voted to have a Democratic representative in Congress. A little less than 4 in 7 (55%) voted for a Republican Congressperson. From this perspective, Alabama doesn’t seem as partisan (or dominated by one party) as we are often led to believe. If we just think about the numbers in terms of voter preferences, if we have 7 Congressional districts, then 3 of them should have sent a Democrat to Congress, and 4 of them should have sent a Republican. But what do we actually have? Only 1 in 7 (14%) was won by a Democrat.”